The mystery	Verdict	How sure	Evidence	Historians	Read
	The Beale CiphersWhether the three Beale ciphers of 1885 are genuine or a hoax	A hoax, about 95 in 100: a treasure story written and partly enciphered	about 95 in 100, a composite judgement	Strong	Agrees withGillogly, King, Mateer, Nickell and Kruh; Hammer held the ciphers genuine	Case pageFull reportFiles (640)
	Where was Brunanburh?Where the battle of Brunanburh, won by Æthelstan in 937, was fought	Bromborough, on the Wirral, at roughly 60 in 100, first among several possible sites	roughly 60 in 100 on the weights chosen	Leading candidate	Agrees withCavill, Harding, Jesch, Coates and Downham; Wood, Halloran and Breeze dissent	Case pageFull reportFiles (40)
	The Last Decade of the Ninth LegionWhere the Ninth Legion ended, after its last dated text of 108	Probably ended in Britain, about 122 to 130; about 50 to 65 in 100	about 50 to 65 in 100, central readings	Probable	Agrees withHodgson, Graafstal and Ritterling; other positions from Campbell, A.R. Birley and Keppie	Case pageFull reportFiles (33)
	The Princes in the TowerWhether Edward V and his brother died in the Tower in 1483	Both died in Richard III's custody in the Tower, 1483: about 85 in 100	about 85 in 100	Probable	Agrees withRoss, Horrox, Pollard, Hicks, Cunningham, Horspool and Skidmore; Langley opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (9)
	The Hanging GardensWhere the hanging garden stood: Babylon, Nineveh, or no single structure	Babylon, more likely than not, 55 in 100; no single structure 35; Nineveh 10	about 55 in 100	Probable	Agrees withBichler and Rollinger, Bagg, Potts and Pedersén; Dalley opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (20)
	The Ourang MedanWhether the Ourang Medan lost her whole crew in 1947 or 1948	Fabricated: written by Silvio Scherli in Trieste in 1940; invented outright about 85%	about 85 in 100 invented outright	Strong	Agrees withPaijmans's 2021 account, whose paper trail it completes; Hargraves and Skeptoid	Case pageFull reportFiles (100)
	Dyatlov PassWhy nine skiers left their tent in 1959, and what crushed three	Cold killed six and snow crushed three; natural causes about 90 in 100	about 90 in 100 natural causes	Probable	Agrees withIvanov's 1959 verdict and the prosecutors' 2020 ravine placement; Buyanov dissents	Case pageFull reportFiles (82)
	The Pied Piper of HamelinWhat happened to Hamelin's 130 children on 26 June 1284	Probably a real loss, 80 in 100; recruited emigration east ranks first at 42	80 in 100 a real loss; emigration 42	Leading candidate	Agrees withDobbertin, Udolph, Humburg, Mieder and the Museum Hameln; Hucker opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (11)
	Who wrote "A Visit from St. Nicholas"?Who wrote the poem that begins 'Twas the night before Christmas	Clement Clarke Moore wrote it, about 85 in 100; Livingston 12, someone else 3	about 85 in 100 for Moore	Probable	Agrees withthe traditional attribution, Nissenbaum, Kaller and Norsworthy; Foster and Jackson opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (266)
	Nefertiti and SmenkhkareWho ruled between Akhenaten and Tutankhamun, and was King Neferneferuaten Nefertiti	Nefertiti reigned as King Neferneferuaten, about 89 in 100; Smenkhkare a separate man	about 89 in 100	Probable	Agrees withDodson, Allen and Kawai; Reeves, Gabolde, Laboury and Krauss opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (39)
	The dancing plague of 1518What caused the Strasbourg dancing of 1518, and whether anyone died	A behavioural epidemic among the poor, about 85 in 100; ergot rejected	about 85 in 100	Probable	Agrees withClementz, Bischoff, Midelfort and Martin; shifts the popular account (Waller, Wikipedia)	Case pageFull reportFiles (188)
	The Man in the Iron MaskWho was the masked prisoner who died in the Bastille in 1703	The valet delivered to Pignerol in 1669, entered as Eustache Dauger: 78 in 100	78 in 100	Probable	Agrees withLair, Petitfils, Noone, Sonnino and Wilkinson, at lower confidence; Funck-Brentano opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (82)
	The Roanoke ColonistsWhat became of the 1587 colonists left on Roanoke Island	Main body's seat on the Albemarle mainland, about 68 in 100; Croatoan 17	about 68 in 100	Leading candidate	Agrees withHorn and Lawler's split-and-absorption reading, at lower confidence; Quinn and Dawson opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (104)
	The Great Chicago FireHow the O'Leary barn in Chicago caught fire on 8 October 1871	A flame carried into the barn, about 85 percent; the carrier cannot be identified	about 85 percent; no candidate above 30	Leading candidate	Agrees withthe Board of Police, Andreas and Smith; differs from Bales on Sullivan	Case pageFull reportFiles (1759)
	The Bixby letterWhether Lincoln or his secretary John Hay composed the 1864 Bixby letter	Lincoln, narrowly, about 53 percent against Hay's 42	about 53 percent for Lincoln	Unsettled	Shiftsthe post-2019 tilt to Hay (Burlingame, Grieve) back to near even, provisionally	Case pageFull reportIndependent check: the blind rerun's reportFiles (296)
	Double Falsehood and CardenioWhether Theobald's 1727 Double Falsehood descends from Shakespeare and Fletcher's lost Cardenio	Fletcher wrote the second half, Shakespeare probably part of the first; 64 in 100	about 64 in 100	Probable	Agrees withHammond, Taylor and the New Oxford Shakespeare on Fletcher; Stern opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (532)
	Hannibal's route over the AlpsWhich Alpine pass Hannibal and his elephants crossed in 218 BC	The Col du Clapier, first at about 40 in 100; Traversette second, Mont-Cenis third	about 40 in 100 for the Clapier	Leading candidate	Agrees withPerrin, Walbank, Lazenby, Lancel, Hunt and Hornblower on the Clapier; Mahaney opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (181)
	The death of Meriwether LewisWhether Lewis shot himself at Grinder's Stand in 1809 or was murdered	Lewis shot himself, about 85 in 100; homicide about 15, accident under 1	about 85 in 100 for self-infliction	Probable	Agrees withPhelps, Jackson, Cutright, Holmberg and Peck; Fisher, Guice, Starrs and Gale opposed	Case pageFull reportFiles (101)