{
 "evidence": {
  "A. Officers' careers: securely dated service ends c. 123/124, probably c. 125-128; none secure after c. 130": {
   "H1": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H2": [
    0.35,
    0.7
   ],
   "H3": [
    0.08,
    0.16
   ],
   "H4": [
    0.3,
    0.6
   ]
  },
  "B. No base and no trace outside Britain after c. 122 (Nijmegen detachment only; fortress empty c. 125/130; no eastern inscription)": {
   "H1": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H2": [
    0.2,
    0.4
   ],
   "H3": [
    0.1,
    0.2
   ],
   "H4": [
    0.5,
    1.0
   ]
  },
  "C. A British crisis c. 122-125 with heavy losses, a 3,000-man legionary reinforcement, a Spanish levy and VI Victrix as a one-for-one replacement (Fronto, SHA, ILS 2726, 2735, RIB 3364, Wall hiatus)": {
   "H1": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H2": [
    0.5,
    0.8
   ],
   "H3": [
    0.5,
    0.8
   ],
   "H4": [
    0.6,
    0.85
   ]
  },
  "D. Dio 71.2 records a legion annihilated at Elegeia in 161": {
   "H1": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H2": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H3": [
    2.0,
    3.0
   ],
   "H4": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ]
  },
  "E. No building stone of the Ninth on Hadrian's Wall": {
   "H1": [
    0.5,
    0.3
   ],
   "H2": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H3": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ],
   "H4": [
    1.0,
    1.0
   ]
  }
 },
 "prior_H1_range": [
  0.3,
  0.15
 ],
 "point_cases": {
  "base (every likelihood and the prior at the base reading)": {
   "H1": 0.852,
   "H2": 0.06,
   "H3": 0.011,
   "H4": 0.077
  },
  "sceptic (every likelihood at the sceptical reading, base prior)": {
   "H1": 0.356,
   "H2": 0.266,
   "H3": 0.076,
   "H4": 0.302
  },
  "sceptic and low prior for Britain (15%)": {
   "H1": 0.185,
   "H2": 0.336,
   "H3": 0.096,
   "H4": 0.383
  }
 },
 "distribution_over_draws": {
  "H1": {
   "p05": 0.374,
   "median": 0.52,
   "mean": 0.518,
   "p95": 0.656
  },
  "H2": {
   "p05": 0.112,
   "median": 0.192,
   "mean": 0.198,
   "p95": 0.304
  },
  "H3": {
   "p05": 0.024,
   "median": 0.045,
   "mean": 0.048,
   "p95": 0.081
  },
  "H4": {
   "p05": 0.139,
   "median": 0.231,
   "mean": 0.236,
   "p95": 0.352
  }
 },
 "P(H1 > 0.5)": 0.584,
 "P(H1 > 0.75)": 0.001,
 "midpoint_case": {
  "H1": 0.521,
  "H2": 0.197,
  "H3": 0.047,
  "H4": 0.235
 },
 "drop_one_at_midpoint": {
  "without A": {
   "H1": 0.288,
   "H2": 0.207,
   "H3": 0.216,
   "H4": 0.289
  },
  "without B": {
   "H1": 0.289,
   "H2": 0.364,
   "H3": 0.173,
   "H4": 0.174
  },
  "without C": {
   "H1": 0.427,
   "H2": 0.248,
   "H3": 0.059,
   "H4": 0.266
  },
  "without D": {
   "H1": 0.536,
   "H2": 0.203,
   "H3": 0.019,
   "H4": 0.242
  },
  "without E": {
   "H1": 0.731,
   "H2": 0.11,
   "H3": 0.026,
   "H4": 0.132
  }
 },
 "triangular_mode_at_base": {
  "H1": {
   "p05": 0.527,
   "median": 0.653,
   "mean": 0.646,
   "p95": 0.742
  },
  "H2": {
   "p05": 0.089,
   "median": 0.139,
   "mean": 0.145,
   "p95": 0.221
  },
  "H3": {
   "p05": 0.018,
   "median": 0.031,
   "mean": 0.033,
   "p95": 0.053
  },
  "H4": {
   "p05": 0.112,
   "median": 0.17,
   "mean": 0.176,
   "p95": 0.262
  }
 },
 "P(Britain ranks first) uniform": 0.969,
 "P(Britain ranks first) triangular": 1.0
}