group_rule = product ; N = 40000 even_S_H base: S 100.0% [99.5-100.0] H 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.5] A 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.0] even_S_H sceptic_half: S 98.5% [93.1-99.7] H 1.4% [ 0.3- 6.7] A 0.1% [ 0.0- 0.3] even_S_H sceptic_quarter: S 88.6% [78.2-94.4] H 10.6% [ 4.9-20.8] A 0.7% [ 0.3- 1.6] flat base: S 100.0% [99.4-100.0] H 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.5] A 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.1] flat sceptic_half: S 97.7% [91.6-99.4] H 1.4% [ 0.3- 6.5] A 0.6% [ 0.1- 2.9] flat sceptic_quarter: S 82.8% [71.0-90.4] H 9.8% [ 4.7-19.6] A 6.7% [ 3.2-13.0] murder_leaning base: S 99.9% [98.1-100.0] H 0.1% [ 0.0- 1.9] A 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.0] murder_leaning sceptic_half: S 94.7% [78.6-98.8] H 5.0% [ 1.1-21.0] A 0.1% [ 0.0- 0.7] murder_leaning sceptic_quarter: S 67.9% [48.7-82.1] H 30.6% [16.5-49.9] A 1.3% [ 0.6- 2.8] suicide_leaning base: S 100.0% [99.8-100.0] H 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.2] A 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.0] suicide_leaning sceptic_half: S 99.4% [97.3-99.9] H 0.5% [ 0.1- 2.6] A 0.0% [ 0.0- 0.2] suicide_leaning sceptic_quarter: S 95.3% [90.6-97.7] H 4.1% [ 1.8- 8.7] A 0.5% [ 0.2- 1.2] Leave-one-out (main prior, base likelihoods): posterior for S when each item is dropped drop E1_boat_attempts S = 99.8% (base 100.0%) Suicide attempts on the boat before Fort Pickering, reported before the death (House to Bates, 28 Sept 1809) and after it (Russell's letters as relayed by Clark, 26 Nov 1809; National Intelligencer, 27 Nov 1809; Russell's 1811 statement) drop E2_will_at_bluffs S = 99.9% (base 100.0%) A will made at Fort Pickering naming Clark and W. D. Meriwether executors (Clark, 26 Nov 1809, from Russell's letters; a will found among the papers, Coles to Jefferson, 5 Jan 1810) drop E3_fort_pickering_state S = 99.9% (base 100.0%) Russell's first-hand report of Lewis's 'mental derangement' at Fort Pickering and the watch he kept over him (Russell to Jefferson, 4 and 31 Jan 1810; House to Bates 28 Sept 1809 on the 'strict watch') drop E4_derangement_on_road S = 99.9% (base 100.0%) Derangement on the road and at the stand, reported by Neelly (18 Oct 1809), the Clarion (20 Oct 1809: 'deranging malady for about six weeks') and Mrs Grinder to Wilson (May 1810: pacing, talking to himself, flushed face) drop E5_family_and_history S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Predisposition: Jefferson's 'hypochondriac affections' inherited from the father (1813); Clark's 'the weight of his mind' known before the journey (28 Oct 1809); brother-in-law Dr John Marks confined for insanity in 1819 drop E6_contemporaries_accept S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Everyone who knew him and wrote at the time accepted the report of suicide: Jefferson, Madison ('to put an end to himself'), Clark ('I fear this report has too much truth'), Bates ('die in such a manner'), Brahan, Russell, Neelly, the executors; no contemporary called for an inquiry drop E7_core_narrative_stable S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) The earliest narrative (Neelly and Brahan 18 Oct; Clarion 20 Oct; Wilson from Mrs Grinder, May 1810) agrees on the core: two shots about 3 a.m., a head wound and a wound below the breast, a request for water, survival to sunrise; the servants 200 yards off heard no intruders; the additions (three shots, riders at dark, Pernier in Lewis's clothes) appear only in 1838 to 1845 drop E8_dying_words S = 99.9% (base 100.0%) Lewis's reported words to the servants that he had done it himself ('I have done the business my good Servant give me Some water', Neelly; 'he had shot himself and would die', Clarion; 'I am no coward; but I am so strong, so hard to die', Wilson), reported by two servants and Mrs Grinder within days drop E9_wound_pattern S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Wound pattern: a grazing head shot and a trunk shot from two pistols, razor cuts on neck, arm and thigh, two hours of survival with speech and movement. Multiple-shot suicides are 1.6 to 8% of firearm suicides against 54 to 57% of firearm homicides; a first shot that misses the brain followed by a trunk shot is the modal multiple-shot suicide; cutting after a failed shot is the defined 'unplanned complex suicide'; a killer leaving the victim alive two hours to talk is unusual drop E10_missing_money S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Money: Russell says Lewis left Fort Pickering with 'perhaps about two hundred & twenty dollars', including a $99.58 Treasurer's check, 'none of which it is said could be found' (31 Jan 1810); the check did later reach Washington and was forwarded to Jefferson (editors, Jackson 2:471-3); Neelly gave Pernier $15 for the road; Coles found 'a little memorandum Book with Some money & his Will' in the trunks (5 Jan 1810) drop E11_valuables_left S = 99.9% (base 100.0%) Valuables left with the body or in the trunks: the brace of pistols, rifle, dirk, tomahawk, silver watch, horses, the journals and the vouchers; Neelly later kept the pistols, dirk, rifle and a horse drop E12_neelly_conduct S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Neelly's conduct: absent at the death by his own account (searching for strayed horses), kept the pistols, dirk, rifle and a horse, claimed to have lent Lewis money (denied by Russell), was in debt and (per Turnbow) in court at Franklin that day; wrote at once to Jefferson drop E13_pernier_conduct S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Pernier's conduct: carried the news and Jefferson's letter to Washington, petitioned Jefferson for $271.50 in wages on 10 Feb 1810, lodged destitute with Süverman, was refused by the government, died of laudanum on 29 Apr 1810; no contemporary accused him beyond Russell's 'aiding and abetting' sentence of 31 Jan 1810 drop E14_lucid_letters S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Lucid letters and plans: to Madison 16 Sept 1809 and to Stoddard 22 Sept 1809 (asks for $200, expects to be on his way back to St. Louis after December); 'when in his best senses he spoke about a trunk of papers' (Clarion) drop E15_moonless_night S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) The night of 10 to 11 October 1809 was moonless (new moon 9 Oct; moonset 18:35), so Mrs Grinder could not have watched Lewis stagger about the yard by moonlight as Wilson's version has it (Guice 2002; confirmed by computation here) drop E16_later_tradition S = 100.0% (base 100.0%) Later tradition of murder: the 1838 to 1845 'schoolteacher' account (riders at dark, three shots, Pernier in Lewis's clothes), the Tennessee committee of 1849 ('more probable that he died by the hands of an assassin', on the strength of a letter from Clark's son about the servant), local stories of a Grinder trial wrote ../data/evidence_model_results_product.json