Variant	Traversette	Clapier	Mont-Cenis	Montgenèvre	Larche	Petit St B.	Grand St B.	Other col
Headline run: Polybian items at half strength, the rest at full strength	29%	40%	16%	1%	3%	2%	<1%	9%
Full model: every item at full strength	19%	70%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%
Headline run with a flat prior	28%	40%	16%	1%	3%	2%	1%	9%
Every item at half strength	24%	46%	15%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	9%
Each source family counted as one item	17%	14%	15%	13%	18%	8%	2%	12%
Halved and collapsed	16%	14%	15%	13%	15%	10%	4%	13%
Scenario, headline run: de Beer's Island (the Island is the Aygues and "Allobroges" is used loosely, so P1-P3 do not discriminate)	54%	20%	8%	3%	5%	1%	1%	9%
Scenario, headline run: view is a topos (the summit view is rhetoric, not observation)	19%	32%	24%	3%	6%	3%	1%	12%
Scenario, headline run: snow is a generalisation (the old snow is a stock detail, not evidence for the col's height)	19%	38%	23%	3%	5%	2%	<1%	9%
Scenario, headline run: Livy's Druentia trusted (Livy's Durance itinerary is taken as reliable)	46%	23%	9%	2%	5%	1%	<1%	13%
Scenario, headline run: numbers distrusted (the day-counts and stades are not held against any route)	26%	41%	16%	1%	3%	1%	<1%	11%
Scenario, headline run: Mahaney credited (the mire is accepted as a dated Punic army deposit)	55%	25%	10%	1%	2%	1%	<1%	6%
Scenario, headline run: Traversette practicable (the height and headwall of the Traversette are not held against it)	51%	28%	11%	1%	2%	1%	<1%	6%
Best case for each candidate (its high ends, rivals' low ends)	100%	100%	99%	81%	86%	83%	54%	100%