| candidate | prior | point | MC mean | 5% | 95% | share of draws ranked first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bromborough (Wirral) | 0.05 | 0.643 | 0.623 | 0.361 | 0.844 | 1.000 |
| Other, unidentified site | 0.70 | 0.202 | 0.206 | 0.086 | 0.349 | 0.000 |
| Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) | 0.05 | 0.040 | 0.045 | 0.013 | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| Went valley / Burghwallis (Wood 2013) | 0.04 | 0.035 | 0.038 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| Other Humber-bank sites (E. Riding, Barrow, Brough) | 0.04 | 0.030 | 0.032 | 0.010 | 0.068 | 0.000 |
| Burnswark (Dumfriesshire) | 0.04 | 0.021 | 0.024 | 0.006 | 0.055 | 0.000 |
| Brinsworth / Tinsley (Wood 1980) | 0.03 | 0.019 | 0.021 | 0.007 | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| Lanchester (Co. Durham) | 0.03 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| Southern / inland (Bourn, Bromswold, Bourne, Axminster) | 0.02 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 |

Leave-one-out (point posterior of the leader and the best rival when each item is removed):
- without E1 Name: a place-name at the site regularly descends from OE…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.239; best rival Went valley / Burghwallis (Wood 2013) 0.076; other 0.450
- without E2 Dingesmere: a Thing-name beside the water from which the …: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.410; best rival Went valley / Burghwallis (Wood 2013) 0.060; other 0.353
- without E3 Humber tradition: John of Worcester (c.1140) says the fle…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.722; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.045; other 0.168
- without E4 We(o)ndun and Brunandun: independent traditions that the …: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.640; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.047; other 0.205
- without E5 Egil's saga: Vinheidr, a northern heath with a borg, on t…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.668; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.040; other 0.197
- without E6 The poem: Norse sail from Dingesmere over deep water to D…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.499; best rival Went valley / Burghwallis (Wood 2013) 0.063; other 0.282
- without E7 Strategy and logistics: convergence of three armies, an E…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.518; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.040; other 0.282
- without E8 Archaeology: the mid-Wirral assemblage (consistent with a…: Bromborough (Wirral) 0.596; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.046; other 0.229

Factor by which a rival's combined likelihood would have to rise to tie the leader (point estimate):
- Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley): x15.9
- Went valley / Burghwallis (Wood 2013): x18.4
- Other Humber-bank sites (E. Riding, Barrow, Brough): x21.6
- Burnswark (Dumfriesshire): x31.0
- Brinsworth / Tinsley (Wood 1980): x33.9
- Lanchester (Co. Durham): x77.9
- Southern / inland (Bourn, Bromswold, Bourne, Axminster): x381.0

Worst case for leader (all its cells at low end, rivals at high end): Bromborough (Wirral) 0.025; other 0.156; best rival Lancashire west coast (Ribble, Fylde, Wigan, Burnley) 0.238
Best case for leader: 0.983